Yes, I know; we killed the blog dead due to our fear of an impending oil crash. We said we’d never post anything again. We bought a farm in Maine and began stocking up on tinned food and ammunition. 

Well, we lied. But it was only a little white lie. This article by Jordan Salari is far too honest, clever, and important, not to be shared with the last remaining vestiges of IYTT’s world weary readership (I’m talking about you, Grandmother).

Jordan has written on various mediums over the years such as cinema, television and music, but most likes to talk about (and of course, play) games. Most of his work can be found on his blog, ‘Ich Bin Ein Gamer’.

He’s British, male, currently working on his second book, and dealing with long-term depression; though he doesn’t define himself by it, he acknowledges that for all it has taken from him, it has given in equal parts. He’s been playing games since the age of five and hasn’t stopped since.

He used to be in the space-rock band Strangelove with a guy called Jim Chisem. They were shit.

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Upon the advent of a new year, I, like many others enter a state of contemplation about who they are, what they want from life, and how they came to be where they are. This is something I admittedly do a lot, not just when it comes to hanging up a new calendar, but throughout the year. It was amidst this contemplation that I came to a very stark realization, one that stirred up a myriad of feelings in me:

I am now 26 years old, and since the age of 16, I have been battling depression.

That’s 10 long years. Important years that were crucial in forming the person that I am today. Years that by most are spent building the foundations on which one perceives the world around them, how one applies the meanings they’ve established throughout the years to reality in order to create a better understanding of the world around them.

Whilst I had the opportunity to develop those myself during my formative years, going through that process while feeling ultimately alone and lost was daunting and confusing, those elements which are required for us to better understand ourselves and the world became somewhat polluted by circumstances out of my control, be it something within that existed chemically, or factors external to myself, such as family.

A painting titled “Im Cafe” by Angela Selders. A man with blonde hair and a green blazer sits alone in a cafe. In front of him on the table is a cup of coffee with empty sugar packets, along with a glass of water. His back is turned to the other patrons of the cafe who are behind him, to his right and in silhouette. His eyes face to his right, aware of their presence, but not engaging them.

At this point, you’d be safe to assume that this article is far more personal than anything I’ve ever been willing to post online so far, being so candid with others is something incredibly alien to me, as during those 10 years I’ve built up the habit of internalizing and repressing what I might be going through, appearing relatively stoic and composed to those around me, from close friends to work colleagues, and sadly, even my family. For the sake of privacy of both myself and those I know, I will refrain from citing any specific individuals who may have been the cause of emotional duress in my life. Those who know me personally are mostly aware of the issues I’ve faced over the years, each of them to different extents (as I said, to my own disadvantage, I often don’t share as much as I probably should in real life), so forgive me if I don’t reveal too much, but ultimately, this is a blog about gaming, and of course gamers are people, and people are very complex creatures, sometimes, wonderfully so. One thing that unites all people though — gamers, and those who’ve never touched a controller — is that through our hardest times, we all require something for distraction, to detach us, if only momentarily from a reality that can become unbearably overwhelming. For me, it was games.

Everyone has their vices, it’s a given, and they exist in order for us to be able to indulge in that part of us that defines who we are; to indulge in what you enjoy is affirmation of your existence, that the world still has something to offer you. For a lot of people around my age range in the UK, excessive alcohol consumption is the vice du jour; they work or study throughout the week, and in order to feel that sense of release and expression that’s inhibited in their everyday life, they drink, and let loose. I, unfortunately, have never been able to indulge in such a manner, as I am tee-total. I’ve never even been drunk in my 26 years of being alive on this planet, and not about to start. This isn’t due to any health ailment or religious obligation; I can, and have tried alcohol but found I detest the taste, and although I was brought up Christian, I stopped believing in God in my early teens. I simply don’t like drinking, and what it does to people, and as someone who believes that as an individual who already holds little control over his life due to circumstance beyond any immediate control, losing that last facet of control would be too much to sacrifice. Also, in all honesty, I think if I were to get drunk, part of me fears that I may like it a bit too much, and when suffering from depression, developing an external dependency can be a dangerous thing (more on that later).

I don’t judge those who drink or do drugs, I believe that everyone should have the right to put whatever they want into their body, so long as they’re not bringing harm to anyone else. In a way, it’s a little unfair to call gaming a “vice”, because that word carries certain negative connotations, where in fact it can be a term that’s a relatively innocent label. When people think of the words “gaming” and “depression” in the same sentence, there’s a tendency for institutions (namely, media outlets) to conjure up images of socially difficult, sometimes volatile and broken individuals whose lives have been overrun by a game. Quite famously there are even clinics dedicated to certain games these days, both online and in bricks and mortar form. There is a big difference though, between using games as an aid to help you deal with depression, and using games to reject a reality you’re not currently satisfied with. Overall, I do feel it’s a little unfair to say that game “addiction” exists, to me, an addiction is something that’s built up through chemical dependency, such as nicotine through smoking, or becoming accustomed to the effects alcohol has on the brain. I think you can have a gaming compulsion, in which you rely on games as a form of escapism; yes, their definitions are similar, but I think it’s the neurological differences that separate them.

A photograph of a grey cat in front of a computer keyboard and monitor. On the monitor is ‘World of Warcraft’ and underneath the caption reads “World of Warcraft Addiction: It has taken over the human race, now it’s going for the cats”.

Now, to how this has had an affect in my life. First of all, a little recent back story: back in April 2011 I was working at a job that I hated. I was relatively well paid but worked ridiculous hours, had very little time for myself, and most importantly, despised what I was doing there. I was undervalued by my superiors, I watched underqualified ass-kissers climb the ladder ahead of me, and for all my attempts to try and reap something good from my job, I simply couldn’t. Eventually, I felt trapped there, and I realized that I’d made a tremendous sacrifice just to be able to exist in that kind of environment, a mistake that would come back to shake my world – I gave up my creativity, a part of me that was once so huge and had defined me for many years, that I carefully cultivated in every way I could had been abandoned, because I didn’t have time for it any more. Before I started working there, I was able to express myself in so many ways; I can play six musical instruments, all of which I taught myself since the age of 16, I can also draw and write, but for some stupid reason, I just stopped doing them. Overall, I was someone who thrived on creating new things, not just for others, but for myself. When that fateful April came around, I started experiencing major problems with anxiety and remorse for what I’d done, and indeed, become. It had even started to affect me physically, I started experiencing extreme stomach pains in which I literally couldn’t keep down any food for over a week.

Eventually I called in sick to work and arranged to see my doctor, after filling in a form which measures your level of anxiety and depression at that given time, on a scale of 1-5 on each option (5 being the highest), I realized that I was at the very extreme on each of these scales, this included terrifying questions like whether I’ve had “thoughts of self-harm?” or “ending your own life?”, and facing this truth, I broke down into tears, feeling foolish for allowing myself to get into such a state, and not attempting to address it beforehand. And thus, for another time in my life, I had entered on the dark and difficult path of depression, one that I now realize has been the hardest I’ve ever faced, and as of right now, while I write this, I’m still on that path, unknowing as to when it’ll eventually come to an end, or where it will take me, but finding solace in the knowledge that one day I willovercome it, and things will be different.

I was given an extended period of leave from work, thanks to the support of my doctor, and during that tine, I wanted to rediscover the things that once gave me such joy that I’d left behind. I had been playing games during my employment, but very, very little of them; as I mentioned, I worked a ridiculous amount of hours, which isn’t forgiving for someone who wants to both maintain a personal life and indulge their hobbies. Fortunately, I wasn’t and still aren’t beholden to anyone else, so apart from maintaining my relationships with friends and family the best I could, I was afforded a lot of freedom, so I made an effort to get back on the gaming wagon.

So back I went, feet first into the wonderful world of gaming, I managed to catch up on all the old titles from my library I hadn’t managed to invest enough time in. Games with unfinished campaigns, unresolved stories, untouched modes, and even ones that hadn’t been unwrapped. Every day it felt like I had something to do, and there was something undeniably wonderful about it. Sure, it wasn’t necessarily productive, but for once in my life I felt like being selfish and offering my time to a fictional reality.

But how was this helping me? Well, even though it didn’t serve as a “cure” to my depression, I noticed that these games became almost a surrogate for a reality that I felt I had ultimately failed, and even been failed by. In these worlds I wasn’t burdened with the feelings that had come to overwhelm me in real life; in taking on the role of these avatars, I walked in the shoes of someone who wasn’t worthless, who had purpose within their prescribed reality, whose narrative was more often than not in a straight line, and offered predictable outcomes. It also offered me a sense of accomplishment, albeit on a microscopic level (I don’t take pride in achievements or trophies like many other gamers do, but I do like the feeling of having brought something to a resolution). In some cases, it was aesthetic factors that made me enjoy visits to these different worlds; during that period, titles likeDeus Ex: Human Revolution, Catherine, Portal 2, and – despite its grim subject matter – LA Noire(what can I say? I adore the noir genre and late 1940s design motifs). Each presented worlds that attempted to mimic reality, yet at the same time lacked its counterpart’s chaotic nature, that for some reason had begun to bore and disappoint me.

A screen capture from LA Noire, showing the city of LA in 1947 at dusk. Three tall buildings are on the left, the furthest is a skyscraper. The road in front of them has cars from the era passing through, to the right is a traffic signal on green, and various pedestrians are walking on the pavement.

Later in the year during the hectic Autumn release schedule, I picked up what for me and many others became the ultimate self-contained reality of the year: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. In case you’ve been living under a rock, Skyrim is an RPG set in the expansive lands of its namesake, where you take on the role of the “dragon born”, a being rarely born over the space of centuries whose return spells a new threat on the lands of Skyrim. Upon beginning the game you find that the character whose role you’ve been thrust into is being held captive as a prisoner, and on the way to your execution, events unfold that avert you from your demise, and set you on the path of your true fate: to be the saviour of Skyrim.

What makes Skyrim so great though, is that even though your destiny and goals are set out before you as clear as day, you can roam the lands as you see fit for as long as you want, and the more you scour it, the more you find there is to discover; magnificent landmarks, bandit hideouts, shrines to long lost gods, bizarre inhabitants and dangerous creatures. It’s a beautiful vibrant world in which you can lose yourself, both as the character and the player. I liked it so much it was even my pick for the best game of 2011, along with many others online publications.

I sunk a ridiculous amount of time into Skyrim, and in a very short period too; within two weeks I clocked up over 100 hours in the game, and for the first time in a while, waking up each morning didn’t feel pointless, I could look forward to paying visits to its world and seeing what it has to offer me, it offered unpredictability that I felt I could handle, because for as diverse as this game could be, I found comfort that its framework was still that of a game, and that unlike reality, should failure come my way, it’d be something that I could try to resolve with the load of a save file, and rationalizing my mistakes could be accounted solely on my actions. In my reality, my mistakes sadly get attributed to my emotional state of mind, something that serves to bring upon further feelings of guilt and remorse, and even lessen my already low sense of worth.

A lot of this can be perceived as gaming being a distraction from facing my problems, but this would be unfair. A lot of the underlying issues behind gaming compulsion (or addiction, depending on how you look at it), is that the people who fall foul of it use gaming as a substitute for a reality that doesn’t fulfil their needs, or disappointed them, or indeed that they could no longer handle. As with many who suffer from compulsion or addiction though, there is often some past event, be it recent or from childhood, that has brought them to retreat from the world.

For all the time I spent in these alternate realities, I never denied that the reality I lived in was what I needed to find comfort in, and accept for all it had to offer, chaos and all. Gaming helped me realize that for all the varying forms of reality they had to offer, they all had something in common; they offered purpose, something which I’d lost in my life, and worried that I’d never find again. After I finished Skyrim‘s main quest, I had to deal with the fact that I’d experienced and exhausted most of what its world had to offer me, and in a strange way, this saddened me. It reminded me of my reality, where despite the random nature of our world, people and events had become predictable, and much like that horrible day back in April, I felt like I’d exhausted all of my options, and didn’t really have anything left to do other than repeat menial tasks. It’s a shame, because I grew to love its world and its inhabitants, and it suddenly struck me that this fictional reality has more in common with my own than I cared to acknowledge at first.

An image from The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. A wide shot of a small, silhouetted figure standing on the peak of a mountain as a flying dragon on the right breathes fire on them. The flames completely engulf the person, as they hold up their shield in defence.

Games like Skyrim among many others have also taught me something else during this endeavour, something that surprisingly may not be all that profound, but it’s something very significant that I’d clearly lost sight of in my own life: that for every mistake you feel you’ve made — whether it’s from being short-sighted, immature, arrogant or haphazard — or even failing to recognize a problem before it got out of hand, it’s completely up to you whether you give up or try to somehow deal with these issues.

Ask anyone who’s ever played and finished Demon’s Souls or the recent Dark Souls; two games which are near perfect allegories for the trials and errors we, as humans face as we try to overcome that which holds us back. Both are crushingly hard games, and both use death and error as an effective teaching tool; because of the rules set within these titles, players must progress with both caution and observation of enemies and traps that lay ahead. There are messages along the way which are left by other players who’ve once travelled the same path as you, most are helpful, but some can lead you to danger.

A lot of the time, your journey can be a lonely and difficult one where you feel overwhelmed by the world, but upon admitting you need the help of others, you can summon the help of people willing to offer a hand, and whilst they may not remain in your world, they make the journey a lot easier for the time being. I could go on about how else these games brilliantly mirror the trials of life, and even depression, but I feel the greatest connection in them is how we deal with failure; in Demon’s Soulsand Dark Souls, when you die (or fail), there are consequences, you lose the souls you collect which are the very driving force of these worlds, not only can they be used to purchase better items, but they can be used to develop your character. When you come back after death, you have the opportunity to rectify your mistakes by fighting all those you once faced before in order to reclaim your loss, but should you fail again before you do this, the souls will be lost forever; and much like life, sometimes when an opportunity has been lost, we have to accept that it’s gone for good, but it’s still up to us whether we strive to find further reward and accomplishment in this world. These two games show that for as dark, bleak and overwhelming as the world may be at times, you can still fight, and you can still win, and the harder the fight, the more glorious the reward can be when you win, the hardest part is keeping the will to fight.

A screenshot from Dark Souls. The player’s character who is clad in armour and armed with a sword and shield runs towards the camera from a giant, minotaur-like creature who wields a large club. They are on a stone bridge with a large tower behind the minotaur, and the pathway is littered with debris such as bricks caused to fall from their battle.

I owe a lot to games, for the many wonderful experiences they’ve given me, and now, the important lessons they’ve taught me. As far as my depression goes; I’m not out of the woods yet, but I’m making the effort to better myself. I’m seeing my doctor on a regular basis, speaking in-depth with a therapist who’s been instrumental in me uncovering and addressing the problems that’ve affected me so deeply over the years, I’ve taken major steps in improving the quality of my life by applying to return to university in September, and despite how life has this horrible habit of separating you from friends whom you hope can remain close to for as long as possible, I still have some truly exceptional people in my life, who’ve made the effort to listen to me, and try to understand the chaos that rages on within my head, and do whatever they can so they can calm it down, even if that means just letting me know that they still care, and that I’m not completely alone.

To understand, and be understood, is to be free. When we lose our meaning, we have to search for meaning in the things important to us, and within games I found my meaning again, hopefully it has for someone else before me, and with the medium growing and becoming ever more significant and profound with each development, people will some day see it for the remarkable things it can do.

Final note: If you know anyone in your life right now who’s going through depression (or even seems like they’re going through it), please, for their sake, just talk to them. They might wanna talk about it, and they might not, but knowing there’s someone out there who’s remotely willing to acknowledge them, and how they are makes so much difference. Most of the time, you don’t even have to try to offer them solutions, or even say much at all; just having someone willing to listen can mean everything, and make things better for them, even if it’s just for that brief moment.

Depression can be an incredibly lonely and isolating affair, one that can bring a person to think that no one truly cares about them, and as a result, they become reluctant to even reach out for help. To reach out to them without prompt can affirm their place in this world, and in your life. If you happen to be suffering from depression yourself, please, never be too proud to admit that you might not be able to deal with it on your own; I tried this, and it nearly destroyed me. There are so many people out there willing to offer you their help, speak to your doctor, a family member or friend you can trust, or even find people online who’ve been through similar ordeals. As alone as you can begin to feel during those dark times, there is literally always someone out there willing to help, don’t be afraid or ashamed to ask for it, and know that one day, things will be better; it just takes some patience.

J Salari

Where did it all start?

Debt crisis, recession, the onward and upward march of neo-liberalism, talk of sado-monetarism, student protests, police charges, melting ice caps, talk of shale gas fracking, a sea of plastic, the spectre of peak oil, high unemployment, celebrity worship, wars in the Middle East, tabloid skulduggery, poorly written articles, lots of football in-jokes, a healthy dose of comic cynicism, no readers, and delusions of grandeur.

So, where does it end?

Debt catastrophe, depression, the death of democracy in its cradle, sado-monetarism, people occupying everything, police pepper spraying or lacerating the kidneys of anyone who does, “frack baby frack!”, a new ocean of plastic, peak oil, higher unemployment (jobs! remember those?), I’m a human being get me out of here, “That News of the World Stuff is terrible”, rising sales for The Sun, more wars in the Middle East, poorly written, but less frequent, articles, too many football in-jokes, an unhelpful measure of cynicism, no readers, and delusions of grandeur.

What about the future?

I used to be optimistic about the capacity of ordinary people to effect meaningful change. That is no longer the case. A congruence of geological (the rapid exhaustion of fossil fuels, water tables, and other resources vital to the stability of modern industrial society), ecological (anthropogenic climate change, oceanic acidification, eco-system destruction, extreme weather patterns, declining agricultural returns, deforestation on an unprecedented scale etc), economic (the continued adherence to compound mathematics as the central organising principle of human society, the pursuit of the unsustainable notion of exponential economic growth, the crippling impact of corporate governance of human affairs), and political (the inability of politicians and citizens alike to a) recognise the monumental challenges posed by the previous three factors, or b) do anything about them) dynamics threaten to cut the Homosapien experiment dead in its tracks very soon. Writing in 2003, Martin Rees, the former President of the Royal Society, gave human civilisation a 50/50 chance of making it out of this century. My opinion counts for very little but I think he is being overly-rosy in his estimation.

I would usually end an article like this with a positive flourish.  As it stands, there are no more happy endings left.

J Chisem

Image  —  Posted: November 25, 2011 by ifyoutoleratethis45 in Culture and Society, Economics, Environment, Political
Tags: , , , ,

Why It’s Hard To Believe Anything You Read

Posted: July 3, 2011 by ifyoutoleratethis45 in Economics

Oh, how I pine for the refreshingly concrete tone of Pravda.

Review: Sliced Bread

Posted: July 2, 2011 by ifyoutoleratethis45 in Review
Bread - Photo by Michel Marcon

Image via Wikipedia

* – A slight improvement on previous incarnations of bread, but nonetheless undeserving of the hyperbole it inspires amongst the masses.

For some reason it is widely accepted in English-speaking cultures that sliced bread is the benchmark from which to compare all subsequent technological, social, economic, and baking developments.

“I like your ‘small is beautiful‘ conception of the world Mr E. F. Schumacher, it’s the best thing since sliced bread!”

Is our fictional character’s exclamation justified?

In many ways it is. That’s if you’re a profit hungry capitalist schweinhund of course.

Indeed, the primary impact of sliced bread, which was first sold in 1924, and at the time was heralded as “the greatest forward step in the baking industry since bread was wrapped” (how deliciously ironic!), has been to increase the consumption of bread and spreads such as jam and peanut-butter. In the great cosmic merry-go-round, only a knife lies between you and a piece of bread. When I lived in Norway you just cut your loaf  and awaited the onset of a culinary delight – this has the added benefit of providing the opportunity to vary slice size according to appetite, a choice sadly lacking for the hapless purchaser of pre-sliced bread. I can’t remember ever thinking, “you know what, the effort required to extend and contract my arm in a see-saw motion is one of the fundamental barriers to the fulfillment of my own happiness, what I need is to cut out the middle man”. Nor would I have put much epoch-changing importance on the fulfillment of such a wish.

False needs and false consciousness comrades!

In addition, it is likely a near certainty that the introduction of sliced bread into the consumer food-chain has contributed significantly to the profusion of fat bastards who now regularly roam the streets of Europe and North America, frantically searching for their next fix of sugary, high-carb, snacks. When a society stops slicing its own bread, it has essentially admitted to itself that it is too lazy and worthless to survive. Warburtons is to Britain what hyper-inflation was to the Weimar Republic.

Quite frankly, the notion that sliced bread is comparable to the mapping of the human genome or the space shuttle is fucking intellectually deranged. If anything, one should subvert this tiresome product and its claims to grandeur with the negative reversal it deserves. So, next time you watch Schindler’s list, knowingly, yet with a melancholy tinge in your voice, turn to the person next to you and say “woah, the Holocaust – worst thing since sliced bread”.

J Chisem

Amidst growing tabloid indignation about public sector pension strikes, Athenian riots, Eurozone jitters, and probably something terribly important regarding X-Factor auditions, it is quite understandable that IYTT’s ever-burgeoning ranks of followers (4 the last time I checked) may have overlooked the recent revelations surrounding the previous Labour government’s offhanded dismissal of reports which suggested that Peak-Oil is rapidly approaching.

As Luke Godfrey has already eloquently dealt with the potential social, economic, and geopolitical effects of oil scarcity, as well as identifying the seemingly insurmountable challenges facing anyone who attempts to prepare for it, this article will assess the likelihood of peak-oil occurring in the first half of this century – because, let’s face it, one could be forgiven for assuming that, as the world marches ever confidently towards a big, black and sticky future, there is no problem.

Before I launch into the spurious and boring exciting analytical bit, it would be pertinent to define exactly what peak-oil is. It does not, as many people assume, describe the depletion of the entirety of the globe’s oil reserves. Rather, peak-oil is the point at which petroleum extraction reaches its maximum level and begins to fall below levels of demand. In 2009, an extensive study conducted by the UK Energy Research Centre concluded that this could be reached as early as 2020[1].

There are two primary trends which suggest such an outcome.

On the demand side, global oil use is anticipated to rise by 35% over the next 20 years, driven by economic growth in China, India, the Middle East and Latin America[2]. In the developed world oil consumption is also expected to expand significantly. In the case of the United States, for instance, demand for oil, led by the transportation sector, is projected to rise by 44% from 19.7 million b/d in 2004 to 28.3 million b/d in 2025[3].

In spite of the reassurances of oil companies and oil-producing nations, there is reason to question whether crude output can be expanded to satisfy these increasing demands. Firstly, estimates of reserves given by corporations and cartels are often exaggerated in order to raise stock prices and maintain favourable loan conditions – the downside revisions of reserve estimates which the DoE makes annually are testament to this[4]. Many of the oilfields upon which a large proportion of global oil consumption depends are nearing their peak sustainable volume. Secondly, the rate of new oilfield discovery reached its zenith in the 1960s and has declined in each successive decade[5].

The pattern of existing oil reserve depletion, falling rates of new oilfield discovery and increasing demand for petroleum will, as US Joint Forces Command has recently argued, render the function of oil as the motor of the global economy unsustainable[6]. The concepts of energy security, economic security and national security are inseparable. It must be made apparent to those in government and industry that a failure to recognise this and act accordingly will jeopardise them all. The benefits of reducing our dependency on oil far outweigh the costs of not doing so. History is littered with societies which, complacently identifying the safety of the present as the status-quo, ignored the fact that security is not guaranteed, cheap or eternal[7]. We must guard against becoming one of them.

J Chisem


[1] Froggatt A et.al ‘Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Business’ White Paper for Lloyds360 (Chatham House, London, 2010) p.13 http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/891/

[2] Raphael S and D Stokes ‘Energy Security’ pp.379-393 in ‘Contemporary Security Studies’ edited by Alan Collins (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2010) p.381

[3] Barrels per day – US Energy Information Administration ‘Annual Energy Outlook: 2004’ (US Department of Energy, Washington DC, 2004) p.150, Table A11 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo04/pdf/0383(2004).pdf

[4] Campbell C and J Laherrere ‘The End of Cheap Oil’ pp.78-83 in ‘Scientific American’, London, March 1998 p.79 http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/EndOfCheapOil.pdf

[5] Klare M ‘Energy Security’ pp.483-496 in ‘Security Studies: An Introduction’ edited by PD Williams (Routledge, London, 2008) p.489-491

[6] Macalister T ‘US Military Warns Oil Output May Dip Causing Massive Shortages by 2015’ in ‘The Guardian’, London, 11th April 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

[7] Ferguson N ‘Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos’ pp.19-33 in ‘Foreign Affairs, Volume 89, No 2, March/April 2010’ p.21

New presentation of data in figure 20 of http:...

The so-called Hubbert Peak - a model which " posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve."

…or at the very least a future where high prices place the crucial resource/products created  using oil out of reach of many ordinary consumers. Putting to one side for a moment of the contributions of oil to climate change, ‘Peak Oil’ offers a clue as to why we all need to be concerned about reliance on this fossil fuel. Developed, and the vast majority of developing countries are largely locked into a lifestyle in which oil is a crucial ingredient, not only of energy production, but also of wider societal infrastructure and consumer products. Peak oil has been predicted for years, whilst some argue that we are already there, but governments are woefully unprepared for the impact of unaffordable prices and scarcity. None of this information is new, nor are the arguments surrounding it. But they, and in particular their ramifications, are largely relegated to the background. This week oil consuming countries released emergency reserves in an attempt to cut the price of crude, and succeeded by around $6 (Levitt, 2011) whilst the failure of developed economies to leave recession has also weakened demand. These measures also have other ramifications, as members of the oil cartel OPEC express their displeasure at the move (Levitt, 2011). The concentration of oil resources amongst just a few countries has always weighed on the minds of strategists in consuming nations, accounting for warm relations, arms sales, and a host of ways in which consumer nations have been complicit in the reduction of other’s liberty elsewhere. It might be hoped that the uprisings in the Middle East allow developed nations to conduct relations only with societies which provide for the security and freedoms of their citizens, but don’t hold your breath. The importance of oil reserves will do little to lessen tensions in international relations.

Despite the release of emergency reserves and the weakness of developed economies the price of oil has remained above $100 a barrel (Macalistair, 2011). This is just a temporary measure, much the same as Osborne’s populist windfall tax on North Sea energy reserves, that will ultimately do little to forestall the harsh truth. Over the next few decades oil prices are likely to carry on rising as demand outstrips supply, even despite the development of African reserves, the Arctic and other unconventional sources. Developing economies such as China or India are increasing their consumption to the extent that total aggregate demand could well outstrip supply within the coming decades. That policy makers are yet to acknowledge this is largely an indictment of their, and our own, narrow and short-term horizons. There is little public debate as to how nations dependent on oil might cope with the resource becoming increasingly unaffordable. Consumers in the UK rage about the slow and not so slow rise of pump prices, closing their eyes to the fact that this is the market system they have signed up to – scarcity demands a premium. New technologies or sources may yet provide alternatives, but they are unlikely to help us avoid the pain of unaffordable oil in the short-term, or to come without costs of their own. Despite the term ‘fossil fuel’ oil is still treated as if it is a perpetual or renewable supply, even as a ‘right’, rather than natural capital which we are liquidating at an ever faster rate. As this continually fails to measure up to reality consumers will no doubt cry foul, despite our own complicity in the process. Having personal capital, of land or of money, may well determine whether we as individuals adapt to these circumstances given that governments have largely failed to challenge the vested interests which keep us on such an unsustainable path (it should be noted that public opinion will often reinforce these same vested interests over our own self-interest). An extent of social and economic pain is largely inevitable, especially if you’re nearer the bottom of the heap than the top.

L Godfrey

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References

Tom Levitt, 2011 : http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/954032/peak_oil_is_getting_closer_but_the_world_is_not_ready.html

Terry Macalistair, 2011: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jun/23/oil-petrol-energy-prices

The Truth About The Economy

Posted: June 24, 2011 by ifyoutoleratethis45 in Economics, Political

Robert Reich connects the dots on the economy, in less than 2 minutes and 15 seconds. Who knew he could draw!?!

“…Logic (and therefore probability as a branch of logic) is not concerned with what men do believe, but what they ought to believe, if they are to believe correctly.” – John Venn

Back when human beings were human beings, the fear of death and the acknowledgement of one’s own mortality were amongst the main driving forces of philosophical, cultural and intellectual life. Of course, since the millennium and the evolution of human beings into celebrity-worshipping, Xbox-addicted detritus, I was worried that the preoccupation with understanding the human condition has been  replaced with inane family entertainment. Instead of going down the local arts centre or library to pore over carefully constructed considerations of life, death and everything in between, 21st century man watches celebrities attempt to complete obstacle courses whilst Richard Hammond smugly delivers put-downs, lovingly crafted by his team of writers.

I was deeply concerned that people no longer seemed to worry about the big questions of death and mortality; not when they have holidays to organise, cars to buy, and elaborate telephone voting scams organised by Ant and Dec to participate in. However, seeing this majestic stained-glass window (pictured below) helped to reassure me that western civilisation is probably going to be ok. In fact, conquering our innate desire to understand ourselves and our place in the Universe is perhaps amongst the greatest of all human achievements. We should all rejoice that mankind has successfully transcended its desperate attempts to understand itself, in what can only be seen as a stunning triumph for the Enlightenment project.

Regular readers of IYTT, eager to read ironic articles about sport and popular music, will probably be entirely unfamiliar with the Enlightenment; to be honest, so am I. Basically, to sum it up, a lot of people published a lot of books on a variety of subjects. These authors challenged all conventional notions of truth, morality and spirituality, and the movement reached its apex when a man called Nietzsche killed God. Of course, he didn’t literally ascend to heaven and slay the great Deity Himself; although in the biopic that I am currently writing about Nietzsche, I have made this into a literal battle, mainly to appeal to the kids. Nietzsche killed God in a more metaphysical sense, in that the idea of God which had underpinned Western civilisation was now redundant.

Along with the death of God, mankind lost it’s golden ticked to immortality. Seriously pissed off, humanity put Nietzsche into a lunatic asylum, and began to wonder what it would do with itself now that it had to face it’s own mortality without the aid of thousands of years of religious dogma. The solution was quite simple; the Venn Diagram.

The Venn Diagram is quite a simple and logical piece of mathematical genius; and yet it is also a bizzare and absurd concept. The Venn Diagram was named after it’s inventor, John Venn. Now, I think that the very fact that someone invented the Venn Diagram is taking things a bit too far; surely a simple diagram expressing the fact that two separate concepts have an overlap in the middle is pretty much common sense?

Further to this, Venn only got around to ‘inventing’ two circles with an overlap in the middle when he was in his fifties. What had he spent the best years of his life doing if this moment of epiphany only came to him after half a century? Had John Venn spent his youthful years frustrated at his inability to express a very simple concept; that two seemingly different things actually had some sort of relation to each other. Had a young John Venn been laughed out of a sandwich shop when he tried to explain that ‘bread’, a staple food made from flour and yeast, and ‘ham’, a cut of meat from a pig, could successfully be combined together to make a ‘ham sandwich’? Did John Venn lock himself in his office, clutching a bottle of brandy and leaving a trail of wrecked marriages behind him, whilst he grappled with the perplexing problem that plagued his life? Surely the wailing of his fourth wife as she banged the solid-oak door of his study and screamed “you don’t love me John, you just love your stupid circles” would have distracted him from his work?

But no, John Venn had a steely determination to map out the inter-relationship between two seemingly unrelated things. So determined was John Venn that he had a midlife crisis and embarked upon a life of alcoholism and liaising with prostitutes. But, unlike the romantic poets of the day who lived similarly debauched lifestyles, there was a method to John Venn’s madness. He would mix together a shot of whiskey with some Ginger Ale, and be inspired at two separate liquids mixing together to create a single drink. He was well known in the brothels of Victorian London for particularly enjoying a ménage à trois, not through choice, but because he could only become aroused by the physical depiction of the concept which tormented his dreams.

Of course, that is just speculation.

But the important point about the story of the life of John Venn is this; through discovering the Venn diagram, John Venn achieved the closest that human beings can come to being immortal. By inscribing his name on the page of history, John Venn will live forever. John Venn will live in the classrooms, where four-year-old children are being taught about his magnum opus. John Venn will live in the Subway restaurants, where amazed customers will see some bread and some tuna magically transformed into a tuna sandwich before their very eyes. And John Venn will live in the blogosphere, where bored and infantile young men will spread disparaging rumours about his life.

It’s very easy to sneer condescendingly at modern culture. However, by understanding the intellectual forefathers of modern day celebrity culture, we can begin to see it in quite a different light. Sure, it’s a bit of fun, with catchy songs, energetic dance moves and recycled jokes. But celebrity culture also represents the ultimate acknowledgement of human frailty and mortality; when Les Dennis appeared on Celebrity Big Brother, and when the Saturday’s turn up unannounced at any sort of charity gig, they are not merely fame-hungry imbeciles. They are chasing the magic status of immortality, and they are embracing a proud philosophical tradition that stretches back to Nietzsche and Venn, and can be traced all the way back to the philosophers of Ancient Rome. As the Ancient Roman philosopher Maximus Decimus Meridius proudly stated:

“Brothers, what we do in life, echoes in eternity.”

A new hobby of mine is going to the local petting zoo and shouting obscenities at the animals which reside there.

Most people that I tell this secret to assume that I’m a massive dickhead; some call me a mentally deranged twat, and one even referred to me as a “completely mental fucking cunt”. But, I can certainly assure you, they are all wrong. Rather than being a twat or a dickhead, I am actually a visionary.

Hurling abuse at indifferent animals is, in fact, the perfect remedy to the stresses and strains of 21st century life. In our modern age of time-saving gadgets, it seems we have more pressure upon our precious time than ever before. Despite our technological advantages, our age is increasingly more insecure than those that went before us. A skilled iron-monger would have had a job for life in Tudor times – of course depending upon whether he was a Catholic or a Protestant, and upon who the monarch was at that time. But rather than worrying about homicidal tendencies from our head of state, modern workers have a whole variety of new issues to contend with. Redundancy, wage-cuts, and the problem of what exactly is suitable for Dress-Down Friday certainly take their toll upon the 21st century worker.

And yet, these animals, which we pay money to look after, have never had it better. Human beings have to slave away for 12 or 14 hour shifts in call centres, rejecting people with legitimate health insurance queries, refusing to exchange shoes that don’t fit properly, and reassuring holiday-makers that they are scum, and so deserve to be placed in a resort with similarly scummy people. Let’s not forget that actual, real people must grapple with these enquiries on daily basis, and after a busy shift must go home and attempte to live with themselves, knowing they have made such fateful decisions. Cows and sheep and other stupid animals just chew the grass their benevolent human owners have provided them with.

Animals; fucking idiots

Likewise, as a member of the Labour Party, I have been following the crazy plots for David Miliband to kick out his fratricidal brother Ed and assume the leadership of the Labour Party. Which would soon be re-branded as “the Conservative Party – but a bit nicer!” Ed Miliband has not been a resounding success as Labour leader, but surely it is worth giving him a chance to make his imprint upon the party as a whole. After all, no leader of the opposition is particularly high-profile in the press; remember back when William Hague had to wear a stupid hat to get some column inches? Keeping Ed as leader or not remains a heavily debated subject; except for amongst goats and other cloven-hoofed animals. Apparently, they just don’t give a shit.

Another thorny issue in contemporary politics remains nuclear weapons. Nations such as Iran and North Korea continue to strive to achieve the dream of possessing, and perhaps using, nuclear weapons. Of course such a development would drastically undermine any attempt to understand Global Politics, and also threaten the fragile peace arrangements that have been born out of the multi-polar nuclear world we inhabit. However, it would be hard to tell that such stressful situations are occurring by looking at sheep. They wander around carefree, eating grass, having sex, and not doing much more.

My point is that, whilst the advance of human technology has given these animals a greater life than ever before – their food is better, they benefit from medication, they even get to act in films sometimes – they don’t share the burdens of stressful 21st century living. We humans have to stress over our bills, our appearance, and our relative success compared to people at high school; animals just wander around shitting everywhere and expecting us to feed them.

So, next time you see a camel, make sure you call it a tosser. Next time you drive past a field of sheep, hang out the window of your car and shout “you’re all massive arseholes”. Next time you see a horse wandering around care-free, why not grab it by the face and inform it that you will kick it in the balls unless it solves global warming. It’s about time these fricking animals learned that they can’t keep free-loading off the human race.

Besides which, the animals can’t understand your harassment, and definitely cannot sue you. So, instead of taking your anger and rage out upon prostitutes or the decadent moral fibre of western civilisation like the emotionally retarded serial killers of years gone by, why not tell a rabbit to ‘fuck off’. I can guarantee that you will feel better in no time. And so will the rabbit.

And so, with the end of the football season, the newspapers have once again descended into transfer-window madness. Rather than jetting off to a Caribbean island like the footballers they report upon, the unlucky sporting journalists must be chained to their desks over the summer, and expected to maintain a similar output as the height of the season. And so we have crazy speculation, over-analysis of any comment or action by a player – “someone that looked a bit like Carlos Tevez spotted in estate agent in Moldgreen; move to Huddersfield Town imminent” – and the daily pledges of loyalty from players to clubs they will immediately stab in the back as soon as the money is right.

I can’t really complain though – withdrawal symptoms from the football season have meant I consume all this crap nearly religiously. And then go on forums to discuss it. And then write blogposts criticising it. Whereas normally I will only really follow the Old Firm in Scotland and the Big 4 in England, due to the summer madness I’ve been checking out transfers at home and abroad, including Stirling Albion’s revolutionary X-Factor style auditions for a new team. I think having any knowledge of the transfer process at Stirling Albion is a sure sign that you need to get a job.

This season is perhaps unique in that managers seem to have joined the carousel of activity. Mark Hughes and Alex McLeish gave their clubs two-fingers in the hope of chasing higher profile jobs; in McLeish’s case, a move from Birmingham to bitter rivals Aston Villa. Perhaps he misses the vitriol and venom of football in Glasgow, and is trying to engineer a similar level of hatred in Birmingham.

Whilst I now feel that I am an expert on transfer policy from the Midlands to Scottish minnow’s, I have been nowhere near as obsessed with the other important managerial announcement of the previous few weeks. After much deliberation, Ayman al-Zawahiri has been given the top job of al-Qaeda. al-Zawahiri spent many years as assistant manager to Osama bin Laden.

For a bunch of religious fanatics, the appointment can be criticised for lacking a certain amount of ‘razzle-dazzle’. Compare Wesley Sneijder’s perspective on who will employ him next season..

only God will decide where my future lies

… to the announcement from the Islamic fundamentalists…

The general command of al-Qa’ida, after completing consultations, decided that the sheikh doctor Abu Mohammed Ayman al-Zawahiri take the responsibility and be in charge of the group

I don’t normally praise al-Qaeda for realism or having a sense of perspective, but I think that, in comparison to the arrogant and farcical opinion of Wesley Sneijder, perhaps some praise is due. The statement from al-Qaeda also seems to reflect more planning and foresight than the managerial chaos at Villa Park stretching back to the start of last season when Martin O’Neill left in acrimonious circumstances.

So, how will al-Qaeda’s new appointment fare? Obviously, following Osama bin Laden, perhaps the most successful manager of al-Qaeda, gives him some big shoes to fill. Al-Qaeda supporters, in the face of recent setbacks, will be impatient for al-Zawahiri to deliver some instant successes. Whilst he has a very different style to bin Laden, seen as a much less charismatic and unifying figure, it is likely there will much tactical continuity with the bin Laden era. This continuity will be important to keep much of the faithful on side, but could be problematic; the world has moved on since the glory days of bin Laden, and without some major changes al-Qaeda could risk being stuck in the past, like the great Italian sides of the 1990′s who have struggled recently. This has been demonstrated most vividly in the Arab spring – fundamentalist Jihadism is no longer looked upon by the angry and disenfranchised youth as a solution to their problems. al-Zawahiri’s biggest challenge will be to maintain the unity of al-Qaeda, and to impose itself upon the Arab revolutions that are currently spreading like wildfire. Whether he can achieve this remains unknown, but will likely come down to which formation he picks; 4-4-2, 4-5-1 or the traditional al-Qaeda line-up of 9-1-1.